World Cup 2018 - Who is your favorite?

**SuperiorShareConnie** · 14 May 2018, 12:44 pm

Ole, ole, ola
30 days left

Who is your favorite team?

**Cash Bonus** · 14 May 2018, 2:34 pm

I'm going with Iceland on this one. I bet they will win.

**suffolkpoker** · 14 May 2018, 2:45 pm

England

**TheGooner** · 14 May 2018, 4:15 pm

The thing that makes the FIFA World Cup interesting is the widespread nature of the field and possible winners.
Any of the previous World Cup winners are probably a reasonable choice - except Italy who failed to qualify.

Brazil have won five times, while Germany and Italy have four titles each;
Argentina and inaugural winner Uruguay, with two titles each and England, France and Spain, with one title each.

Last four finals show a widespread of teams making the final - with only Germany appearing twice.:

2014 - Germany 1-0 Argentina
2010 - Spain 1-0 Netherlands
2006 - Italy 1-1 France
2002 - Brazil 2-0 Germany

In terms of betting - I like to make my own estimates and then look at the betting odds.
So my percentages would be Germany (25%), Spain (25%), Brazil (15%), France (12%), England (10%) and Argentina (8%).

The only newcomers I could make a case for might be Portugal (2%) or Belgium (2%), and the rest of the field would need a sporting miracle (1% in total).

Now looking at the betting odds - and their price suggest some value at the head of the field - their prices are :
- Brazil 5.00 (suggesting 20% likely)
- Germany 5.50 (18%)
- Spain 7.00 (14%)
- France 7.50 (13%)
- Argentina 10.00 (10%)
- Belgium 12.00 (8%)
- England 19.00 (5%)
- Portugal 26.00 (4%)
- Uruguay 34.00 (3%)

------------------------

Betting thoughts :

Brazil are always favourites, always underpriced, and although they might win - it's not a great bet.
France and Argentina are priced where I expect them to be - they could win as outsiders and it wouldn't be a huge shock.

Belgium are underpriced / over-rated, they are great at beating weak sides, but lack the ability to step up their game to match it with top sides. While England have the same problem (great in qualifying but not quite top-class) they are surprisingly over-priced and possible value. I guess England's famed inability to win a penalty shootout counts against them in a format of 4 knockout games.

(A bet on England to lose via penalties is usually a profitable bet)

Portugal are only included as a chance because they have Ronaldo - they managed it in Euro2016 - but I don't think that he can do it again two years later on.

So based on their prices and my estimates I'd take a combination of Germany and Spain both at good value - and expect to get at least one finalist.

**Triple7** · 14 May 2018, 4:54 pm

My favourite team is Belgium and the Latin American countries, except Argentina. It's amazing to see how football lives in Latin America.

It would also be nice if Russia performs on this World Cup.

The problem with Belgium is that the difference between the 12-14 best players and the rest is huge. Also they appear to have (again) a weak coach.

**eenzoo** · 14 May 2018, 9:47 pm

Originally Posted by suffolkpoker

England

Mate ... it´s a tournament

Germany wins surely!

**Domain_Don** · 15 May 2018, 1:30 am

Brazil and Argentina haven't won a World Cup on European soil in 60 years....makes them hard to back!

If Germany had a world class centre forward they would surely be the best bet, but it's a tournament that appears wide open.

Maybe England......ah forget it.

**Breakout Affiliates** · 15 May 2018, 5:13 am

The Netherlands!

**irisui** · 15 May 2018, 5:26 am

Brasil, of course!

**TheGooner** · 15 May 2018, 5:35 am

Originally Posted by Domain_Don

Brazil and Argentina haven't won a World Cup on European soil in 60 years....makes them hard to back!

To be fair - Europe hadn't won on South American soil EVER - until Germany finally won 2014.
(1930 Uruguay win in Uruguay, 1950 Uruguay win in Brazil, 1962 Brazil win in Chile, 1978 Argentina in Argentina)

Whenever games are in Neutral venues (only four times) ... Brazil has won three - Mexico 1970, USA 1994, Japan / Korea 2002.
Spain's win in 2010 in South Africa was Europe's first win outside Europe. So those old records are made to be broken sometime.

----------------

I think that Russia is very different from main stream Europe. Travel and national tensions mean a different feel.
France / Germany / England? They all have issues in getting the Russian fan support.

Once Russia are eliminated (2nd Round ?) then expect Brazil and Messi / Argentina to pick up neutral support.
But having said all that - I agree and whent for Germany /Spain as my choices.

Originally Posted by Breakout Affiliates

The Netherlands!

Not quite sure how to break the Oranje! qualification news to you ...
The Netherlands finished 3rd in their group behind France and Sweden ... and have failed to qualify.

**RacingJim** · 15 May 2018, 5:37 am

Originally Posted by Breakout Affiliates

The Netherlands!

Lol a real football fan we've got here. Unless you're joking?

**RacingJim** · 15 May 2018, 5:56 am

It is wide open definitely.

Brazil - well Neymar is coming into it injured and he kind of holds their hopes in his hands as he's massively influential for them, without Neymar I don't think they can win. They have Firmino and Jesus but Neymar is the magic man.

Germany - very good across the park, no out and out great striker, but Werner is good enough and Thomas Muller always chips in with goals. A very strong efficient unit but I think Neuer might miss out and he'll be a huge loss. They've been there and done it though and I can see them doing it again.

Spain - same as Germany, lack a top striker but across the pitch they are class. Not quite up there like they were a few years ago though and I think Semis.

Portugal - a great generation of young players coming through plus the talisman of Ronaldo up top, they have a chance definitely but it'd be an upset.

Argentina - great individuals, but even struggled to qualify, don't seem to function as a team but they have lethal striking options in Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Icardi, Dybala - it's insane. Always seem to flatter to deceive at big tournies.

France - very strong across the park, I like them. Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroud are good options up top. Nice balance in midfield with N'Golo Kante, Pogba etc. I think they can go very far.

Belgium - Loads of good individuals, not got great balance in their team though, too many artists who all want to be the No.10 luxury player, Martinez will do what he does and not have them well organised enough at the back like his Prem teams. They can do well, but I dont think they'll get past Quarters.

England - Quarters at best, a fairly mediocre set of players we have now, lacking creativity and spark, 2 very good strikers in Vardy and Kane but no-one really to feed them.

My picks: France, Germany and Brazil if Neymar is fit.

If I had to pick just one I'd say: Probably, just about pick France I think they are a nice unit.

**PromoteCasino** · 15 May 2018, 5:57 am

I have a sneaky feeling that there will be plenty of shocks this time around. With most teams boasting players that play in the big teams nowadays it justs seems to a more level playing field than in previous World Cups.

Not very scientific (like TheGooner) but just my views. As an Englishman, I would love to see England do it again as the previous time I was only a month old. But I am all geared up for disappointment again.

As for my pick, it would probably be the French it could be there turn again.

**DanHorvat** · 15 May 2018, 6:09 am

I think France will take this one. Just look at the roster. Varane, Kante, Lemar, Mbappe, Payet...and Pogba can and will make a difference in a tight match.

Brazil is still a mess, German players are no longer hot (Lahm was the key ingredient), Spain will be back to perennial underachieving now that Iniesta is retiring. Messi isn't a winner, England will fail miserably yet again, and so will Belgium.

Portugal could do well, and Switzlerland and Serbia would if they didn't get such a difficult group and an even more difficult road to finals (Germany in knockout round).

Tournament bracket is the key. Winner of Group C (France) has it relatively easy except that they meet Brazil in semis. Their group matches are also going from easy to more difficult, warming them up for Portugal/Spain in Round of 16. France group is so easy that they could rest players in game 3, and neither Portugal nor Spain will be able to afford to.

Although, winner of Group D has an even better road to finals. And that's Argentina or Croatia. But neither can win it.

France.

**SuperiorShareConnie** · 15 May 2018, 12:28 pm

Originally Posted by Triple7

My favourite team is Belgium and the Latin American countries, except Argentina. It's amazing to see how football lives in Latin America.

It would also be nice if Russia performs on this World Cup.

The problem with Belgium is that the difference between the 12-14 best players and the rest is huge. Also they appear to have (again) a weak coach.

Futbol (soccer) is like a religion in Latin America

**sakisarv** · 15 May 2018, 5:23 pm

Brazil sure, have a good roster!!!

**eaton2003** · 15 May 2018, 10:42 pm

Panama would be a nice financial win for me but I say Germany has the strongest hope of winning.

**pokeraussie** · 16 May 2018, 12:53 am

Originally Posted by suffolkpoker

England

You're a sucker for punishment.

**Breakout Affiliates** · 16 May 2018, 3:31 am

Originally Posted by RacingJim

Lol a real football fan we've got here. Unless you're joking?

No, I am not joking at all.

I've been supporting them every world up for as long as I can remember

**RacingJim** · 16 May 2018, 6:32 am

Originally Posted by Breakout Affiliates

No, I am not joking at all.

I've been supporting them every world up for as long as I can remember

But Mandy, they didn't qualify.

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