Bitcoin Prediction: How High Will It Go Ahen When?

**Sherlock** · 6 January 2022, 11:39 am

Originally Posted by MMM

Thinking of the energy costs part: theoretically, even if let's say btc goes to 500,000 in 2032, due to reward halving, the energy demand increase would be just 50% from now or something in that area (x12 in btc price / *8 in mining reward)

probably a bit higher due to tech advance and lower costs of other expenses but something in that area.

Missing something?

Nothing. But:
- 500,000 in 2032 is extremely conservative estimation given that we just see the beginning of the end of fiat
- what about in 2050?
- with recent hike of prices, maybe not even that high hashrate will be needed for something like equilibrium of POW BTC

**MMM** · 17 May 2022, 11:35 am

Sherlock, what's your take on value decrease vs hashrate steadily climbing?

Kind of similar to 2019-20 but the split is quite big.

**edgarf76** · 17 May 2022, 10:06 pm

I am surprised to see this thread is still going. My timing was off but my prediction was actually low

. By 2032, I predict at least 250K. As for ethereum, I predict 50K min.

**Sherlock** · 20 May 2022, 10:15 pm

Originally Posted by MMM

Sherlock, what's your take on value decrease vs hashrate steadily climbing?

Kind of similar to 2019-20 but the split is quite big.

I am offline most of the time since October and I hope for life. But I noticed it. Probably we are missing something. It can be some moneylaundering, stealing of electricity, whatever. Recently Russians stole many miners of people who can not deal with them bc of sanctions.... I have no explanation, but I believe that in few years we will have it.

It is not the death spiral (value and hashrate decreasing), so all good.

Inflation is finally kicking in and it will not be stopped. So I was either totally wrong or.. the btc will decouple from stock market for good.

Now is time to start to be optimistic about future price.

**TheGooner** · 21 May 2022, 7:16 pm

I don't really see the BTC price being pushed by the hash rate - to me that makes little sense. The number of miners and the power of miners does nothing practical for the price of BTC.

I can see why more miners would enter the market if the price of BTC goes up (bigger prizes) but not why more miners means bigger prices. I know that there has been symmetry in these two stats in the past, but I think that you are confusing correlation with causation.

However, I could understand the BTC price being pushed by the number of active wallets, which shows more demand.

I found a graph or wallet users at blockchain.com that show stagnant growth in the last 3-4 months. I know it's only a small sample as it's only blockchain.com (and who would want a blockchain.com wallet these days?) but it has the benefit of being able to supply up to the minute numbers.

Source : https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-wallet-users/

So I'd argue while new retail users stay away from BTC, the price will stay in the doldrums.

**Strider1973** · 22 May 2022, 1:29 am

Originally Posted by TheGooner

but I think that you are confusing correlation with causation.

I agree with this. Higher BTC price makes mining more attractive.

Nice to see you back, Sherlock.

As I also hope for BTC to go up too, I'll show this chart which looks promising:

1 year HODL wave:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/char...ear-hodl-wave/

It shows the % of BTC that have not been moved in 1 year or more. While you could argue that this is a bad sign as they are not being used, you could also say that they are used as a store of value and that they are in the hands of users that don't want to sell them. And in the past, approaching a peak in the hodl wave meant that the BTC price later increased. Of course there are very few data points, but intuitively it seems to make sense: more BTC in wallets that are HODLing -> less BTC available for short-term sale -> higher price.

Bitcoin reserve on exchanges
https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/ch...hartStyle=line

This is also promising: again it means that there are less BTC available for short-term sale because people are moving them away from CEX (I know there are also other explanations, like that people are getting the "not your keys not your coins" mantra, but the effect is the same).

So... let's revisit this thread in 2-3 years (or hopefully earlier).

**MMM** · 22 May 2022, 6:09 am

Originally Posted by Strider1973

So... let's revisit this thread in 2-3 years (or hopefully earlier).

Makes sense

**Sherlock** · 22 May 2022, 8:09 am

Originally Posted by TheGooner

I don't really see the BTC price being pushed by the hash rate - to me that makes little sense. The number of miners and the power of miners does nothing practical for the price of BTC.

I can see why more miners would enter the market if the price of BTC goes up (bigger prizes) but not why more miners means bigger prices. I know that there has been symmetry in these two stats in the past, but I think that you are confusing correlation with causation.

Everything is about money. Miners who have to cover their costs simply do not like to sell with a loss, because they have to cover their costs. That is all. If a CPA affiliate has to pay for his costs 200 USD on average for a player, then the CPA rates can not fall under 200 USD. It is the same logic and it matters. If (in simplified word) keep raising the costs of advertisement, then even the CPA has to go up. (And the opposite implication is also valid, because the costs of CPA are derived from marginal cost of affiliates on that simplified market.)

It is you who is confused by simple mechanic logic where there is always one way cause and effect. It is just human simplification of complex reality that came with the model that either A can cause B or B can cause A; while obviously this never happens in the universe.

Originally Posted by TheGooner

However, I could understand the BTC price being pushed by the number of active wallets, which shows more demand.

I found a graph or wallet users at blockchain.com that show stagnant growth in the last 3-4 months. I know it's only a small sample as it's only blockchain.com (and who would want a blockchain.com wallet these days?) but it has the benefit of being able to supply up to the minute numbers.

Source : https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-wallet-users/

So I'd argue while new retail users stay away from BTC, the price will stay in the doldrums.

Wallets and active wallets (probably you mean addresses) are something that can be automatised (and is being automatised) and can be done with minimal costs. It means little, because:
(i) the BTC ecosystem is changing with L2 (which is growing, but only linearily)
(ii) more importantly: vast majority of BTC holders never used something like wallet or address and as bitcoin is going to more mainstream, actually the rest of people who are virgin owners of BTC are the dumber ones who will never have capacity to use wallets safely, so they will be always out of stats

**Sherlock** · 22 May 2022, 8:21 am

BTC will go up now for sure if it persists. It does not matter whether to 1M or 100M or 1B per coin. Nobody will get much richer from that in terms of REAL appreciation. It will be good as wealth preservation and maybe in real terms it can make it up 10x in one generation, but not 100x.

Inflation will destroy soon all values and the reset is coming.

Being rich in the world full of poor and p1ssed of people is for most worse than to be only well set up in the world that was non-violent place for consumers.

In other words moving average of BTC price is an indicator of sh1tstorm (the fact that it dropped by more than 50% of ATH does not matter much). Everything is written here: https://blog.bitmex.com/author/arthur/?lang=en_us by someone who is much more capable than me.

So pardon me, I am going to work with sand compactor, until the petrol price is under 0.00005 BTC / litre.

**okcado** · 8 October 2022, 9:51 pm

I am sure that Bitcoin will bear to 12k - 8k next year but in the next 5 years BTC will hit all time high around 200k. I believe that BTC is a currency of the future to store the value.

**ratemycasino** · 27 April 2023, 4:50 am

Totally agree! now btc is near 29k and this is only beginning. More and more countries begin to accept crypto payments on gov level

**annarosak** · 9 August 2023, 1:24 pm

Must go very high (100K+) after btc halving. So can buy now and wait 26 april 2024

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