Bitcoin Prediction: How High Will It Go Ahen When?

**Sherlock** · 17 December 2020, 11:31 am

You can look at any other asset. Look at Bezos and his stock. It is the same, he can flood at any time the market with his shares and maybe break not just AMZN, but all markets of the world.

Now the question is: why should he do it?

Those unnamed whales, who are they? Most likley some idealistic cypherpunks, who live like me with computer, glass of water and cat. Maybe they could in fact start an attack on world economy, because they are pissed off, but... in fact they need money much less than Bezos who has to pay off his exwife or private jets.

What you are missing is so called marginal propensity to consume and marginal propensity to save. The richer people are the higher is marginal propensity to save. I am saving maybe 99% of income for example because I have money. (But my rule even when I was poor was to save 95%. I was homeless because of that. The way to make money is simply not to spend.) The BTC whales do not need to spend the money.

Same thinking is when you are driving and maybe you think: what if I turn the wheel at the curve a bit. I will be dead. Yes, you can do it, but you will not. Same problem is what POS coins are (not) having: if whales decide to disrupt the coin, they can do it much more than by POW coins.

I understand psychologically the fear of unknown powerful someone. But it is a fear that made sense in deep forests. Now we should be afraid much more from known powerful entities: like politicians, central bankers and even more from society. Society can and does and will force the cantral bankers and politicians do the same that you fear of whales. They are and will disrupt the money and the economy. Because they must. Because society forces them. The whale 1. does not need that much money for consumption 2. even if the whale wants the money, it wants to offload without disrupting the market to get the most value out of it.

**Sherlock** · 17 December 2020, 11:43 am

Originally Posted by tufty

I wasn't a buyer before, then I wouldn't be a buyer now, at an all-time high. So I understand that.

It is like the big funds, who said no and now look around and see it needs to be part of the portfolio. I am sure the noise from their clients urging to invest has got louder and louder. How can you have property, gold, stocks and shares and not have bitcoin?

Absolutely. Those are the two driving factors now. Even when the rich people / institutions know they missed the boat, they have no other option than to jump in. Incredibly well summarised.

Years back I wrote the plan. I am an egoistic idiot, who things it was "my plan", but probably I read it elsewhere and thought after I was the inventor. Anyways the plan was 1st some early adopters, then those rich people who can not afford to miss the boat and who will buy secretly (which is something that happens right now, yday some billionaire revealed he kept buying for 700 M USD secretly etc).

And the last phase - if bitcoin survives technically - will be central banks buying bitcoin.

After that the BTC will be the underlying asset under the central bank money. So defacto everyone will pay with BTC (or some other crypto that will replace BTC) without touching it or even knowing it. This is inevitable from the beginning. Meanwhile society will crumble. Cyberfeudalism and cybercommunism will fight to each other. But some crypto behind will not care. The real battle to watch will be POW vs POS. Anything else is irrelevant.

**Former Member 14** · 17 December 2020, 12:46 pm

Originally Posted by Sherlock

Once bitcoins are actaully mined then nothing. Just we all will be dead.

What we invest time into, or in some cases, waste time in...

Your statement really makes one think of what truly is IMPORTANT

**edgarf76** · 17 December 2020, 2:12 pm

23K, I did not think it would break 20K this year. Unreal.

**universal4** · 17 December 2020, 7:56 pm

Originally Posted by Sherlock

After that the BTC will be the underlying asset under the central bank money. So defacto everyone will pay with BTC (or some other crypto that will replace BTC) without touching it or even knowing it.

I think this is what the central bank plans.

Rick
Universal4

**Sherlock** · 17 December 2020, 9:41 pm

Originally Posted by universal4

I think this is what the central bank plans.

Rick
Universal4

I do not know whether central banks have some plans, but of course, if something replaces BTC, it simply can not be some central bank coin or corporate coin.

I do not know how people still do not get it, I am spinning my head over really. Bitcoin is the best, not because of the technology. But because it was first and - what is important in this context - that it is far more decentralised than any other currency or even cryptocurrency. This is why Satoshi disappeared - to erase the last point of centralisation: himself.

Central bank coin is a bullshit. It can not work. The level of trust into such coin is the same as level of trust into fiat. Such coin can be always manipulated in a way as fiat is on daily basis. And because it can be manipulated, it is manipulated, like QE. And because it is manipulated, it will fail and will be replaced by something better and decentralised. The best decentralised tool now is BTC.

The only way how BTC can be dethroned is that some other crypto will emerge, but it must be even more decentralised than BTC. Otherwise of course no one will accept is as safe haven, because if it is less decentralised than BTC, then it is even less safe.

So again (and again): bitcoin value comes from the 2 networks: the networks of users, exchanges, hodlers etc. And from the network of miners and nodes. Both are fairly decentralised and no other (crypto)currency beats it. No one can decide to create more than 21M BTC (in fact any miner can decide to change the code and mine 210M or 21B BTC, but that would create the fork and no one will accept those forked coins. Central bank coin and fiat of central bank can be always created out of thin air. And that is why people do not fiat. And that is why people with fiat buy BTC.

**TheGooner** · 17 December 2020, 10:26 pm

Originally Posted by Sherlock

Central bank coin is a bullshit. It can not work. The level of trust into such coin is the same as level of trust into fiat. Such coin can be always manipulated in a way as fiat is on daily basis. And because it can be manipulated, it is manipulated, like QE. And because it is manipulated, it will fail and will be replaced by something better and decentralised. The best decentralised tool now is BTC.
...
No one can decide to create more than 21M BTC

Or to put it a slightly more simplistic way - a central bank coin is really NO different from a central bank dollar bill. There are too many dollar bills, and more being printed every day. That's the problem - that's the scenario pushing scarce assets like bitcoin, gold bullion, fine art and real estate to higher and higher levels.

It is the hard limit of 21m BTC that creates a scarce resource that can also be quickly traded and exchanged worldwide without government censorship or bnak interference that gives BTC a unique value proposition. (And remember just 18m at present and maybe only 14m as up to 4m may be lost in forgotten wallets).

Originally Posted by Sherlock

The only way how BTC can be dethroned is that some other crypto will emerge, but it must be even more decentralised than BTC. Otherwise of course no one will accept is as safe haven, because if it is less decentralised than BTC, then it is even less safe.

Indeed. There are other value options in crypto right now - but most of them like ETH, LINK, ATOM, DOT are considered value for their utility in what looks like being groundbreaking applications in blockchain technology - NOT for their rarity.

It is very hard to see another crypto token that can be now created and obtain value for rarity alone. BTC was first. BTC was original. BTC is quite unique in that regard. And as institutions and financial muscle also take up that mantra it becomes a reality.

Will it be forever? Who knows? A year in crypto is a decade in the real world as things move so quickly.

**LegalBetAndy** · 18 December 2020, 5:45 am

Yes, good points, I could be wrong and there is bound to be massive swings up and down on the way. Long term though, in my opinion sooner or later Bitcoin will be trumped by something else. It has first mover advantage and that is important but other than that...

If it runs up to 40k well done everyone who bought at 20k though. He who dares Rodney!

**tufty** · 18 December 2020, 7:32 am

Originally Posted by LegalBetAndy

Yes, good points, I could be wrong and there is bound to be massive swings up and down on the way. Long term though, in my opinion sooner or later Bitcoin will be trumped by something else. It has first mover advantage and that is important but other than that...

If it runs up to 40k well done everyone who bought at 20k though. He who dares Rodney!

Maybe Sherlock's point about decentralisation sets it apart from most others. I thought this was worth a read ("Why is 20K Bitcoin Worth Anything At All"):
https://www.coindesk.com/over-20k-wh...nything-at-all

**Sherlock** · 18 December 2020, 7:47 am

Originally Posted by LegalBetAndy

Yes, good points, I could be wrong and there is bound to be massive swings up and down on the way. Long term though, in my opinion sooner or later Bitcoin will be trumped by something else. It has first mover advantage and that is important but other than that...

If it runs up to 40k well done everyone who bought at 20k though. He who dares Rodney!

There is a strong tide against this thinking and each day is becoming stronger (and BTC already has 11 years). You might not be aware of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

**BenzBuggie** · 19 December 2020, 9:30 am

bitcoin will reach levels that are astronomical. when it has acceptance of the general public, you will see 500k plus

**Sherlock** · 19 December 2020, 10:04 am

Stop astronomically sh1tposting accross the board.
Good bye.

**PROFRBcom** · 13 January 2021, 4:12 pm

Originally Posted by LegalBetAndy

If it runs up to 40k well done everyone who bought at 20k though. He who dares Rodney!

Congrats to anyone that sold at 40-41k. Even more congrats if you rebought at the very brief 32k dip!

**Jambo** · 14 January 2021, 1:28 am

Originally Posted by BenzBuggie

bitcoin will reach levels that are astronomical. when it has acceptance of the general public, you will see 500k plus

500k probably not. But 100-150k is possible. When 1 BTC was still worth 8 cents, nobody would have thought that it would be 40k at some point.

**Pokerface** · 31 January 2021, 10:23 am

The last couple of months have been crazy for BTC. We all went nuts when in hit 20K a couple years ago and recently 40k albeit now low 30's. Once thing that is guaranteed in that BTC is not guaranteed. Reading the predictions are always interesting and with fingers crossed some predictions will come true.

**Nenad** · 31 January 2021, 11:55 am

I don't believe that this year BTC will go up more than 50K, even this amount is questionable. In 2022, there could be different story, but it depends on wide range of factors. Anyway. those who were lucky or clever to buy it when it was cheaper nd sold when it was 40K, I just can say congrats!

**Jambo** · 31 January 2021, 12:46 pm

And why do you think it will not hit the 50k?

**Nenad** · 31 January 2021, 1:08 pm

Regarding the whole situation in the world, and having a peak already. It's just my humble opinion.

**Sherlock** · 31 January 2021, 1:10 pm

Originally Posted by Jambo

When 1 BTC was still worth 8 cents, nobody would have thought that it would be 40k at some point.

Not correct. When Btc was 8 cents there were exactly the people who thought about it. Even when BTC was 0 cents, there was at least one person, Satoshi, who thought about it and created bitcoin because he thought about it and wrote the message into genesis block and kept writing his thoughts.

Even before bitcoin existed, during whole 20th century, there were people who were thinking about some kind of decentralised money that can not be manipulated. People from libertarain school of economics for example. Of people who wrote cyberpunk like P.K. Dick, Stanislaw Lem or Neil Stephenson. Everyone who was thinking where society is going knew this is coming. The only question was: will it be bitcoin or something else?

Decentralised currency that will gradually replace our current money was always not just a possibility. It was completely inevitable. Yes, most people did not see it, but most people simply have no imagination, are scared of world and the changes and they in fact just bet on the chance that they will somehow live and die and nothing important will happen. And therefore they can not imagine a shift of power like bitcoin will most likely be.

500k probably not. But 100-150k is possible.

Possible is even 1M, 10M, or 1billion per btc. Not very probable though. 100-150K can be achieved with at least moderate catastrophe on markets. Huge double dip recession with big money priniting at least.

I think there are still reserves where western society can spend some sources to pretend that everything is fine. (It is not the case for poorer countries that will go back to normal, like Brazil, where Bolsonaro called for normal life even when thousand+ people die per day.)

Now 150K USD without inflation would be nearly 1000 Exahashes per second equilibrium energy consumption. Many millions of miners have to be produced, when already market with graphic cards is destroyed. 500 TWh approx has to be wasted = bitcoin would use as much energy as whole France at 150K USD price.

So not very probable at this moment. But on the other side in times of WSB, who knows...

**Jambo** · 31 January 2021, 1:14 pm

But the terrible situation in our world is one of the reasons why bitcoin increased so much. We will see

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