Bitcoin Prediction: How High Will It Go Ahen When?

**edgarf76** · 8 July 2018, 6:01 pm

Hey guys and gals, hope all is well with every1. I posted a similar thread on the AGD but it was how low would it go. In my opinion, I think bitcoin will eventually hit the 50K mark, maybe a little higher. The time frame I am giving it to make that move is by 2020. By that time either banks will have adopted the blockchain technology or the sec will place more restrictions. What do you guys think?

**Sherlock** · 9 July 2018, 7:07 am

I think:
- blockchain technology adoption by bank is just some word, that nobody knows what it should mean, but it is a magic formula used over and over again
- in either case nothing like that will happen by by 2020
- bitcoin is money in blockchain and has nothing to do with blockchain technology adoption by bank
- bitcoin can be adopted by banks as money or asset class, but even that will most likely not happen in 2020, because banks have stricter AML rules year by year and this is not gonna change
- bitcoin will hit higher than 50K mark, but 2020 (halving year) is a bit too soon for 50K as median estimation
- SEC or some other organ like that will place more restrictions, but bitcoin must flourish in spite of that not because it will be nursed by official institutions; if bitcoin can not make it in hostile environment then it is not good enough; no government wants bitcoin, because no government wants private money; power of states come from control of all aspects of life and money is one of the aspects. There is a saying, something like fishes will not dry out their pond.
- In few years will come a big economic and monetary crisis. Is impossible to determine where and how it will look like. I believe bitcoin as it is now is strong enough to attract the big money as safe haven.

The only certain thing is that if bitcoin survives there will be huge swings up and down.

**MegaWinner** · 21 January 2020, 9:30 am

Considering the Bitcoin Block Reward Halving, I think it will reach $ 15,000 in 2020, and then settle down at around $ 10,000.

**fullbenefit** · 21 January 2020, 9:42 pm

I will be dissapointed if it doesn't reach 100k this year.

**markoo** · 22 January 2020, 4:19 am

Originally Posted by PokCas

I will be dissapointed if it doesn't reach 100k this year.

100k seems too high for me. I expect modest 20k this year.

**Former Member 14** · 22 January 2020, 5:29 am

Originally Posted by PokCas

I will be dissapointed if it doesn't reach 100k this year.

Surely you jest...

**olezhkayo** · 29 January 2020, 7:37 am

I think that Bitcoin is makeing a huge push every day and it could become number 1 currency in year or two

**Pokerface** · 30 January 2020, 2:02 pm

It would be great to see BTC rise again however the past year has seen how volatile all these currencies and markets are. But, it does make us dream of what if ..... just like buying a lottery ticket. LOL

**Nenad** · 30 January 2020, 2:11 pm

I would agree here with Pokerface.
I do believe that bitcoin has a bright future, but still it depends on so many factors. We will see...

**PROFRBcom** · 30 January 2020, 2:18 pm

If Bitcoin hits 100k this year, it will be a problem.
It will mean that the USD has broken down and is no longer the world reserve currency, hyperinflation has kicked into full gear, World War III has started, or all of the above.

100k will attract far too much regulatory attention as well. Careful what you wish for or else politicians will flock to "save the children" from the tyranny of Bitcoin!

**Pokerface** · 29 November 2020, 1:03 pm

Always interesting to read back though the predictions of Bitcoin. Many were predicting 100k for 2020 with one prediction of 20k.

2020 stared at $7100 and has almost hit the 20k mark with a month still to go. Fingers crossed.

**Sherlock** · 29 November 2020, 3:19 pm

People who were predicting 100K in 2020 are as unreasonable as those who predicted too low prices.

A lot of money is attracted by crypto, but it is in range of low tens of billions a year max. For BTC going to 100K this year would be needed hundreds of billions inflow, especially because 1st half of year was under pre-halving conditions.

World economy and monetary situation is in one word disaster, so it is very good for BTC. But even under such favorable condition BTC is still only at 20K.

100K was never possible this year.

Under those extremely favorable conditions it is possible during next year to reach 100K, but even that is not very probable. Bitcoin is much more liquid and really a lot of money is needed for 100K/coin.

IMHO even the 50K peak during 2021 is roughly coinflip and maybe not even that.

But with 2022 and on it is totally unpredictable. Would will descent into chaos. Either deflationary or inflationary. Both will be good for bitcoin, but in nominal prices the inflationary world would be better.

Also it is worth of noting that money is not everything. E.g. many things have infinite price. I am not able to buy cauliflower in country where I am anymore. I can not fly to Japan even for 10 M USD or 500 BTC. So maybe all BTC holders will be insanely rich, but they will have a problem to buy what they want.

**Strider1973** · 29 November 2020, 3:41 pm

An interesting thought I've recently read is that there are about 50 million millionaires worldwide.
Assume that the top 10% of them (the richer of the multi-millionaires), so 5 million people, want to buy Bitcoin.
How many can each of those multimillionaires get? Only about 4!
So owning 4 BTC makes you rich, as even the richest people in the world will not be able to own more than 4 BTC on average

(I know this is flawed thinking as you could do the same line of thinking with 19th century stamps, 1950ies oldtimer cars etc but it's nonetheless an interesting thought).

**Sherlock** · 29 November 2020, 4:35 pm

Bottom line is that soon the 1% will be 0.1% and then 0.01%.

Considering the uneven distribution of BTC, even the 0.01% can be achieved with 4 BTC (much more likely ofc is even today that BTC will fail completely).

But then living amongst the 99.99% will not be so much fun. Even today I am just constantly solving problems of people who got poor or poorer during last years and it is totally sad and depressive. People who were middle class are now hungry.

I think now is unlikely that we will ever see sub 10K BTC and extremely unlikely that if we do, that it will stay there more than for few moments.

So if you did not grab at least some, do it now. It will maybe fail. But if it does not it is your pension. Buying the BTC is much safer bet than paying taxes or contributions to pension fund in a blind hope that the state or some corporation will take care of you. Nobody will take care of anyone. It is much more important do do this decision now than to think what to do in dead markets for affiliates.

When BTC was just under 9k USD this summer, my banker asked me how much he has to buy (finally). He was nearly 60 years old, so I suggested him at those prices to put in 5-10%. At 18K it should be less IMHO, but for that old person. Way different it is for younger people. But I encourage my young employees to go 100% in with all savings and save aggressively. Bitcoin now indeed does not have so much space to grow, and we can forget about thousands of percents hikes during one halving. But the market also changed. Negative interest rates, zobmie companies, asset bubbles, property bubbles are here and economical depression ahead. Bitcoin is not that great as 6 years ago, when we were 1st paid in BTC, but it is far more +EV investment than any alternative.

Also most people do not buy and hold BTC directly. They buy some IOUs from banks, exchanges, apps like from Facebook or Revolut. It is fine for bitcoin and it was necessary. But do not do the same. Buy or hold the BTC in your wallet. But to do it safely is a lot of work. Thank god affiliates were forced to learn how to do it. It was annoying, but now it is a huge advantage. If you can use and secure your wallet today, you already are in the 0.01% of people. It makes just sense to squeeze as much as possible from that ability.

**casinobonusguy** · 30 November 2020, 9:04 am

Hopefully not everyone here is looking at Bitcoin as their sole retirement plan .In a year Tesla has gone up 836% ,Apple 79% , Microsoft 43% ,Facebook 74% there are lots of buying opportunities there if you have time on your hands.I live in Canada so have easier access to banking options and investing so I realize not everyone has access to everything listed here.I am just concerned when people are going all in on one thing ...

**Sherlock** · 30 November 2020, 11:07 am

Nothing has to be the sole retirement plan. E.g. now gold is dipping and I am buying heavily (for fiat not for bitcoin).

But bitcoin should be the first thing to look at with retirement plan, especially if it is not in portfolio yet. Of course it has to be there for years and if not years there were excellent opportunities in early 2020 and early 2019.

Those overhyped stocks are madness and once the economy of cheap money collapses and along will collapse even the money itself, the people with those stocks will look for retirement under bridge. TSLA notably is literally a shitcoin with shitcoin chart bubble.

But comparison to stocks is not bad. TSLA PE ratio is over 1000, so it is nearly infinity. Other FAANG stocks have mad PE as well. So nobody is expecting some old school income like dividends anymore it seems. It is only good for crypto, which does not bring dividends*, because the competition of stocks has just very weak advantage.

All retirement plans will most likely fail with reset. This is why is BTC so appealing. Even for those who think unshakeable FAANGs will be here until the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, but who want to hedge this assumption, the BTC is the best choice. This is why BTC is so appealing. It is a devil, who nobody sane likes, but nobody should afford NOT to have.

* Not 100% true, because POS coins bring defacto dividend. And all cryptos can be lend and the interest rates are pretty high (but also pretty risky tbh).

**LegalBetAndy** · 6 December 2020, 2:54 am

I personally, and I appreciate I am very much in the minority here, think Bitcoin may have double topped at 20k. There is no real use case for it. Yes it has limited supply and is secure and possibly you can argue it is a store of value but you can say the same thing about stamps. It has several single points of failure and its uneven distribution is only one of them. I see it as potentially being a fad (remember Beanie Babies?) and once all the Bitcoins are actually mined... well then what? People now either have them or do not but you can not really (I know there are some examples but not many) actually buy anything with them.

I believe in the future of crypto currencies, just not of BTC. I think there is a better use case for a number of other coins and not to mention the coins which have not been created yet. BTC had first mover advantage but other than that, there is no compelling use case.

In my opinion, I could be wrong.

**Sherlock** · 17 December 2020, 10:24 am

LegalBetAndy - what you are writing is a carbon copy what each year an "advanced rookie" is writing and thinking. Beanie Babies, tulips? It is getting old a bit.

You can store value in stamps, but stamps are not that liquid (like who knows what is the price of some rare stamp). And stamps are hard to transfer. Stamps were great, before there were computers and the electricty that are backing bitcoin.

Once bitcoins are actaully mined then nothing. Just we all will be dead. Then they will be mined and they will hopefully exist and still flot between people. When they are all mined, that does not mean they stop existing. It is some bullshit you read from people who think they know something, but they know nothing. Blocks will be mined and miners will get rewards from transactions, but not rewards for finding the block (you maybe do not know what it means, so ask here first).

Bitcoin will have other problems, much sooner than in 2140. Right now we indeed do not see a double top, but BTC hashrate is not rising and no one gives a ****. I do not like it. Ethereum is totally unusable. The rest is borderline scam or outright scam.

**MMM** · 17 December 2020, 11:06 am

Personally i am less into tech anlysis of double top or not. But the main thing that worries me in terms of BTC being store of value, is the insane % of btc held by certain unknown people.

Everybody speak about limited supply vs the deflation coming due to goverments priniting money. However, if i saw correctly, about 4M out of 18m mined btc are in dormant accounts. Not to mention probably few more that are held by some whalers and miners. So the real number of BTC in use is not really 18m out of 21.

Any moment those accounts can become active flooding the market. Even if 50% of those "dromant" btc are lost forever - still the amount is huge. Relatively to that, few trillion dollars printed is nothing compared to the total market cap.

So from certain perspective - indeed, no goverment can suddenly print btc and devalue it. But indeed few japanese, chinese or american early adopters, miners, etc - can flood the market.

If someone here (Sherlock?) can explain what am i missing here I would appreciate it.
Or maybe i am not...

**tufty** · 17 December 2020, 11:17 am

I think anyone in the us-facing affiliate space knows there is a huge use for it and it is being used. People should have cottoned on to that fact years ago - many doubters did. There were people here who had the cliched 'tulips' thing in every post they made about bitcoin and have now become converts for several years. It is like the big funds, who said no and now look around and see it needs to be part of the portfolio. I am sure the noise from their clients urging to invest has got louder and louder. How can you have property, gold, stocks and shares and not have bitcoin? It would be mad. It is fine to change your mind, but I would struggle to change my mind (if I had been a luddite) when the price is at an all-time high. You have missed the boat. People thought that before and the boat came around again - just $3000+ earlier in year.

I am not a fan because I have a lot but because if I had a ton of cash right now, bitcoin would be my number 1 choice of investment especially at these particular times. I don't know what the future holds and I do know the bitcoin price is very sensitive to sentiment, well to everything. It would be no surprise to me for it to have a 50% retracement - it's what it does historically. One bit of bad news always does that to it. People say, now the holders are less fickle - they are bigger funds etc. It only takes one of them to pull out in a high profile way for confidence to be lost for a while. I don't mind the ride - I have long term holdings that I just hodl but I also buy on the big dips and sell on the peaks. Nothing more than two or three trades like that in the last year (and the year before that nothing), but that is all that is needed. Yes it may go to zero in the future, but right now, it is being used in the real world and it is additionally also a store of value and potential protection for your under-threat cash. It is more flexible than gold in so many ways and they are not suddenly going to find a mountain of bitcoin.

The human condition is to remain entrenched in their views, whereas trying to keep an open mind and changing position is often the most profitable option. However, if I wasn't a buyer before, then I wouldn't be a buyer now, at an all-time high. So I understand that.

If it retraces I lose millions on paper, it wont be the first time and then my buy orders kick in anyway - that is a hedge against disappointment. My only real disappointment would be if it curled up and died and was buried. I dont see it happening just now, it is just too useful in so many ways.

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