Bitcoin on a downward slide

**Casinorep** · 2 August 2016, 4:42 pm

I got a sizable payment in bitcoin, and when I had issue withdrawing it, bitcoin skyrocketed. So I thought I'd let it sit there and see how high it'll go before cashing out.

Hehe well in the past two days it's been free falling and my payment has since shrivel to less than the amount I was paid. Cheers to greed.

Anyone have a guess when it will go up again?

**Deano99** · 2 August 2016, 5:59 pm

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. I think the secret meeting that took place between core developers and miners has spooked people into a massive sell off. I just hope it's not the people in that meeting doing the selling!!

I read today that a Hong Kong exchange went down with some coins getting stolen, not sure if that has had much of an impact.

Hopefully the price will rebound. There is massive uncertainty around a potential hard fork, hopefully if/when that happens stability and confidence will return, and price will get back to where it was.

Either way it seems something will happen quite soon, so personally I'm in no rush to sell now

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**Sherlock** · 2 August 2016, 7:32 pm

The reason is after the ETC boom and secret mining meeting, the hack of Bitfinex. It is hard to estimate how and when Bitcoin recovers. It is another MtGox. 125K Bitcoin were stolen and Bitfinex might go under.

I think after will be seen how exactly the hack was done, the price will somehow recover. Now there is indeed a fear this can be a bug in code of btc. But as Bitfinex rep said https://www.reddit.com/user/zanetackett , they had all bitcoin in hot wallets, so the hack was not so problematic. Yes, it is extremely dumb, but they were forced to do so by some US institution (if I understand it correctly).

**Deano99** · 3 August 2016, 5:55 am

Great thread cheers.

That poor bitfinex rep deserves a drink!

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**Sherlock** · 3 August 2016, 6:29 am

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comm...ex_from_using/ here is the source, why bitfinex had everything in hot storage, if anyone is interested.

**sweetbet** · 3 August 2016, 9:05 pm

Bitcoin value is starting to climb again

**Sherlock** · 18 August 2016, 7:31 pm

https://calvinayre.com/2016/08/03/bus...ine-licensees/
Not that I think it is a good news for bitcoin. UK market is irrelevant for BTC now. And this "approval" will seal the market even much more. The big players already divided and ruled the market and probably will have no intention to go for btc. The bitcoin sportsbooks will see tougher pressure than those letters: https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk...operators.aspx

**eaton2003** · 24 August 2016, 3:46 pm

Bitcoin fluctuates an awful lot. Just be careful to not panic buy or panic sell. In April BTC was around 460 figure and then a few months ago rose to 750 before dropping to 640 where it stayed for a while. Then on August 2nd it dropped to 480 before rising again to 560-580 where it is now. I see the coin climbing over the next couple of weeks and settling again around 650 and then in late September it may go to 800. Watch this space.

**Doolally** · 24 August 2016, 3:53 pm

Out of interest (I've never had any Bitcoin) what drives the price up and down apart from the obvious theft mentioned above?

**eaton2003** · 24 August 2016, 4:20 pm

Originally Posted by Doolally

Out of interest (I've never had any Bitcoin) what drives the price up and down apart from the obvious theft mentioned above?

Supply and demand

The recent sudden drops in BTC has been due to hacks of the Crypto Currency system including the time when ETH got hacked and BTC got hacked. Coindesk.com is a good site to look at to get a better insight on the BTC world.

**TheGooner** · 24 August 2016, 4:47 pm

Originally Posted by Doolally

Out of interest (I've never had any Bitcoin) what drives the price up and down apart from the obvious theft mentioned above?

Basically it is a function of supply and demand.

Here is how I see it - after a couple of months of using and transacting in bitcoin (BTC)

SUPPLY
The supply of bitcoins is around 11 million at present and is very slowly increasing with every block mined until we will max out at 21 million bitcoins - some 20-30 years in the future.

Most of the supply is locked up in a handful of large accounts that have millions of BTC ... this means that there are few bitcoins traded, and the demand has pushed the price up from under $10 to over $1000 before dipping back to a $500-$600 range that we see today.

DEMAND
The demand of bitcoins at present is primarily driven by Chinese (who will gamble on ANYTHING) and people who want to move their money out of local currency because they don't trust governments or their local currency which is mainly Chinese again, plus preppers and doomsday people.

Volume in the last 24 hours is 450,000 BTC in Chinese Yuan, 25,000 in USD, 4,000 in EUR and probably another 4000 in other currencies. So if the price starts dropping and BTC falls out of favour with the Chinese then the price will tank.
Source is : https://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

USES
You can't really use BTC for much in the real world, but online you can use them to pay for some things - mainly "Sin" things - like gambling and silk road purchases ... as mainstream adoption is very, very slow.

The BTC price is totally artificial with limited supply the main reason - there is no intrinsic value to a bitcoin - there is nothing that you can do with them - they are a cryptographic token that is an intellectual curiosity to most people and some sort of diversification strategy.

You could say the same thing about gold (except Gold has 3000 years pedigree as a value store and has some uses in technology and jewelry).

USE CASE
The only "use case" that is working for BTC at the moment is movement of funds for individuals and companies that find it difficult to move funds using the traditional bank wire. As the end user usually wants paper money the current BTC process is no quicker and no cheaper than normal methods.

You can see why certain gambling companies that have players / affiliates in restricted countries have adopted BTC payments.

FUTURE PRICE
This really depends on who you talk to.

Bitcoin supporters think that all the world will move to BTC, and BTC only, and with that demand the price will jump to $10,000 and then $100,000 per BTC.

I just don't see why that would be the case. There is NOTHING special about BTC that can't be replicated hundreds of times over with different crypto-currencies using the blockchain concept. It already has been and these "alt-coins" do have some small value.

Despite the BTC limited supply there must be a maximum demand for a thing with no real use and no actual uniqueness - and when the price exceeds a level then other blockchain tokens will become more fashionable - and will attract Chinese attention.

I think that BTC will wobble between $500 to $1000 for a few years, other blockchains will be used, and then there will be a RAPID deflation of BTC as people swap for other crypto-currencies.

------------------------------

But that's just MY opinion - and I do invite other affiliates (especially Sherlock who has helped me a great deal to get to grips with this area) to post their views on the subject - and not be too harsh with me ...

**allfreechips** · 24 August 2016, 5:37 pm

You can gamble and sit on the coins or like i do in and out....

**Casinorep** · 25 August 2016, 1:42 am

Originally Posted by eaton2003

I see the coin climbing over the next couple of weeks and settling again around 650 and then in late September it may go to 800. Watch this space.

Interesting insight. What makes you think so?

**ocreditor** · 25 August 2016, 3:08 am

Originally Posted by Casinorep

Interesting insight. What makes you think so?

The coin shows stability so this scenario might happened... not sure about September maybe later this year

**Doolally** · 26 August 2016, 4:11 am

Thanks TheGooner for an interesting post. Thanks too to Simon for the insight.

I can't see me using it much to be honest and don't fully trust the whole system but I might well have a dabble at some trading for a bit of fun. I'll need to do a little more research first though.

Any other good or bad stories about Bitcoin trading?

**Deano99** · 30 August 2016, 5:43 am

Great post Gooner, hitting lots of nails on heads.

I too would be worried about the China effect, but only in the short to medium term.

I'm a bit more optimistic on the future of Bitcoin, for the simple reason that there are so many vested interests in the currency and the general ecosystem. There's an element of it being too big to fail.

That's purely from a socio-economic viewpoint, being honest I'm a bit bamboozled by the technology behind it all.

Though the scalability of Bitcoin as a payment method worries me, or at least my limited understanding of the technology.

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**eaton2003** · 31 August 2016, 2:15 pm

Originally Posted by Casinorep

Interesting insight. What makes you think so?

This is based on the fact the in reality there are only 15 million bitcoins (this is a small number in comparison to other fiat currencies) and come football season you will see a rush on people trying to obtain bitcoins in order to bet at 5dimes, bookmaker, bovada who all use this as a primary payment method for US customers. The supply will go up and even a small demand will increase the value and then others will jump onboard and start to buy.

**TheGooner** · 31 August 2016, 2:49 pm

Originally Posted by eaton2003

This is based on the fact the in reality there are only 15 million bitcoins (this is a small number in comparison to other fiat currencies) and come football season you will see a rush on people trying to obtain bitcoins in order to bet at 5dimes, bookmaker, bovada who all use this as a primary payment method for US customers. The supply will go up and even a small demand will increase the value and then others will jump onboard and start to buy.

The US have a very small use and influence in BTC - about 1/20th the number of BTC are transacted in USD compared to Chinese Yuan (see volumes and link above) - even if US use doubled it would not even be a blip.

Bitcoin is not in the mindset of most US gamblers - too nerdy/techy - too complicated - and with an hour long wait for 6 confirmations it is NOT instant deposit and use.

IMO - You are more likely to see a rise at Chinese New Year than you are at the start of an NFL season ...

**eaton2003** · 31 August 2016, 3:04 pm

I agree the Chinese market is a big driving factor behind the BTC. However I would be interested to see what happens during the start of the football season as gamblers will want to gamble and I can see them opening wallets and doing this so they can remain betting online throughout the season. The increase I see is about $100-200 over the course of 2-3 months but lets watch this space as I am speculating that I believe this will be the outcome.

**Casinorep** · 7 September 2016, 6:46 pm

It's been trending upward. I'm going to hold on to mine and won't cash out until it surpassses $700/coin.

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